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Focus here: the Hi-Opt I blackjack counting system—its card values, running count, true count, ace side count, performance characteristics, practice drills and differences from Hi-Lo and Hi-Opt II.
New to counting? Begin with our main blackjack card-counting guide and learn basic strategy before adding count-based betting or playing deviations.
The system is easy to maintain because every counted card changes the running total by only one point. Its most important difference from Hi-Lo is that Hi-Opt I does not include the ace or 2 in its main count.
Ignoring aces improves the count’s usefulness for some playing decisions, but it reduces its raw accuracy for identifying strong betting situations. Players who want to use the system at its intended strength therefore commonly maintain a separate ace count and calculate an adjusted count for betting.
Hi-Opt I at a glance
| Feature | Hi-Opt I |
|---|---|
| System type | Balanced |
| Count level | Level 1 |
| Positive cards | 3, 4, 5 and 6 count as +1 |
| Negative cards | 10, jack, queen and king count as −1 |
| Neutral cards | Ace, 2, 7, 8 and 9 count as 0 |
| True-count conversion | Yes, for multi-deck use and precise index application |
| Ace included in main count? | No |
| Ace side count useful? | Yes, particularly for improving betting accuracy |
| Published betting correlation | .88 before an ace-side-count adjustment |
| Published playing efficiency | .61 |
| Published insurance correlation | .85 |
| Traditional strength | Playing efficiency in single- and double-deck games |
Hi-Opt I card values
| Card rank | A | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10, J, Q, K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi-Opt I value | 0 | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 |
A simple way to memorize the tags is:
- Count up: 3, 4, 5 and 6
- Count down: every ten-value card
- Ignore: ace, 2, 7, 8 and 9
The term ten-value card includes the 10, jack, queen and king. Each is worth −1.
Why Hi-Opt I is a balanced count
A balanced system has card tags that sum to zero when every card in a complete deck has been counted.
One standard deck contains:
- Four 3s, four 4s, four 5s and four 6s: 16 cards worth +1
- Four 10s, four jacks, four queens and four kings: 16 cards worth −1
- Twenty neutral cards worth 0
The positive tags total +16 and the negative tags total −16, producing a final count of zero.
This provides a useful practice check. When you count through one complete deck accurately, the running count should finish at zero.
In a casino shoe, the count normally will not return to zero because the cut card prevents every card from being dealt before the shuffle.
Why Hi-Opt I is a Level 1 system
A Level 1 counting system never changes the running count by more than one point for a single card.
Hi-Opt I therefore uses only:
- +1
- 0
- −1
This is simpler than a Level 2 count such as Hi-Opt II, where some cards are worth +2 or −2.
“Level 1” describes the size of the tags. It does not mean that the complete Hi-Opt I method is automatically easy. Maintaining a true count, deck estimate, ace side count and strategy indices at the same time creates substantially more work than merely memorizing the ten card categories.
How to keep the Hi-Opt I running count
The running count is the cumulative total of every exposed card’s Hi-Opt I value.
Begin at zero after the shuffle and update the count as cards become visible.
Worked running-count example
Suppose the following cards appear:
10, A, 2, 4, 9, Q, 7, 3, J
| Card | Hi-Opt I value | Running count |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | −1 | −1 |
| Ace | 0 | −1 |
| 2 | 0 | −1 |
| 4 | +1 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Queen | −1 | −1 |
| 7 | 0 | −1 |
| 3 | +1 | 0 |
| Jack | −1 | −1 |
The running count after the nine cards is −1.
Count groups rather than every card separately
Speed improves when cards are mentally cancelled in groups.
Examples:
- 5 and king cancel: +1 and −1 = 0
- 3, queen and 8 combine to 0
- 4, 6 and two tens combine to 0
- 2, 7, 9 and ace can be ignored entirely
Practicing cancellation reduces the number of separate arithmetic steps required during a busy round.
What a positive or negative Hi-Opt I count means
A positive running count means more counted low cards than ten-value cards have already left the shoe. This suggests that the undealt cards contain relatively more tens than expected.
A negative running count means more ten-value cards than counted low cards have already appeared. The remaining shoe is correspondingly less rich in tens under the main count.
That interpretation is incomplete until the player considers:
- How many decks remain
- How many aces remain relative to expectation
- The table rules
- The penetration
- The strategy and betting indices being used
A running count of +6 with six decks remaining is not equivalent to +6 with one deck remaining.
How to calculate the Hi-Opt I true count
The true count normalizes the running count according to the estimated number of decks still undealt.
True count = running count ÷ estimated decks remaining
Example 1: six-deck shoe
Suppose:
- Running count: +8
- Decks remaining: approximately 4
+8 ÷ 4 = true count of +2
Example 2: late in a double-deck game
Suppose:
- Running count: +3
- Decks remaining: approximately 0.75
+3 ÷ 0.75 = true count of +4
Example 3: negative running count
Suppose:
- Running count: −5
- Decks remaining: approximately 2.5
−5 ÷ 2.5 = true count of −2
The true count provides more information than the running count because it measures the imbalance relative to the size of the undealt card supply.
Estimating decks remaining
True-count accuracy depends on estimating how many cards remain in the shoe or dealer’s hand.
Common practice resolutions include:
- Whole-deck estimation
- Half-deck estimation
- Quarter-deck estimation for advanced hand-held play
The correct resolution depends on the index system, deck count and amount of accuracy the player can maintain without creating errors.
Discard-tray practice
A practical home drill is to place known quantities of cards in a discard tray and learn their appearance:
- 26 cards: one-half deck
- 52 cards: one deck
- 78 cards: one and one-half decks
- 104 cards: two decks
Practice from different viewing angles. A casino discard pile may appear compressed or uneven, and a face-down shoe requires estimating what remains rather than what has already been dealt.
True-count rounding must match the index set
A true-count calculation can produce a fraction such as +1.7 or −1.7. Players then need a defined method for converting that number into the integer or interval used by their betting and playing tables.
Possible methods include:
- Truncating toward zero
- Rounding to the nearest integer
- Flooring positive and negative values differently
- Using fractional index intervals
These methods are not interchangeable.
For example, −1.7 becomes:
- −1 when truncated toward zero
- −2 when rounded to the nearest whole number
- −2 when floored
Use the rounding convention specified by the index tables or simulation that generated your strategy. Mixing one set of indices with another rounding method can move decisions to the wrong threshold.
Why Hi-Opt I does not count the ace
An ace has two different strategic roles:
- It is a powerful high card for betting because it helps produce natural blackjacks.
- Its flexible value of 1 or 11 makes its effect on playing decisions different from an ordinary ten-value card.
Hi-Opt I leaves the ace out of the main count to preserve greater playing sensitivity. That is one reason published comparisons give Hi-Opt I a higher playing-efficiency figure than Hi-Lo.
The tradeoff is weaker raw betting correlation. A positive Hi-Opt I count can indicate many tens remaining while failing to show that an unusually large number of aces have already been dealt.
That is why an ace side count is important when betting precision matters.
How the Hi-Opt I ace side count works
The ace side count is maintained separately from the main Hi-Opt I running count.
A standard deck contains four aces. Therefore:
- One deck begins with 4 aces.
- Two decks begin with 8 aces.
- Six decks begin with 24 aces.
- Eight decks begin with 32 aces.
Track how many aces have appeared and compare that number with how many would normally be expected at that stage of the shoe.
Expected aces remaining
Expected aces remaining = decks remaining × 4
Actual aces remaining
Actual aces remaining = starting aces − aces already seen
Excess aces
Excess aces = actual aces remaining − expected aces remaining
The excess can be positive or negative:
- A positive result means more aces remain than expected.
- A negative result means fewer aces remain than expected.
Worked ace-side-count adjustment
Suppose a six-deck shoe began with 24 aces.
Two decks have been dealt, leaving approximately four decks.
At that point:
- Expected aces remaining: 4 decks × 4 = 16
- Aces seen: 5
- Actual aces remaining: 24 − 5 = 19
- Excess aces: 19 − 16 = +3
Assume the main Hi-Opt I running count is +4.
For Hi-Opt I, the ten-value cards have an absolute tag value of 1. The betting adjustment is therefore:
3 excess aces × 1 = +3
Temporarily add that to the running count for betting:
Main running count +4 + ace adjustment +3 = adjusted betting count +7
Then divide by the four decks remaining:
Adjusted betting true count = +7 ÷ 4 = +1.75
The unadjusted strategy true count remains:
Main strategy true count = +4 ÷ 4 = +1
This produces two separate values:
- +1 strategy true count for ordinary Hi-Opt I playing-index decisions
- +1.75 adjusted betting true count for evaluating the betting situation
Example of an ace-poor shoe
Use the same six-deck shoe with four decks remaining, but suppose 11 aces have already appeared.
- Actual aces remaining: 24 − 11 = 13
- Expected aces remaining: 16
- Excess aces: 13 − 16 = −3
With a main running count of +4:
Adjusted betting count = +4 + (−3) = +1
Adjusted betting true count = +1 ÷ 4 = +0.25
The main count looked positive, but the unusual shortage of aces greatly weakened the betting situation.
Do not permanently add aces to the Hi-Opt I count
The ace adjustment is temporary and purpose-specific.
Maintain:
- The ordinary Hi-Opt I running count
- The number of aces seen or remaining
- A temporarily adjusted count for betting
After evaluating the wager, return to the unadjusted Hi-Opt I count for normal playing indices unless the index system explicitly provides a multi-parameter ace adjustment for that decision.
Simply assigning every ace −1 inside the main Hi-Opt I running count turns it into a different counting structure and invalidates the original Hi-Opt I indices.
Hi-Opt I performance measurements
Counting systems are often compared using three correlation or efficiency measurements.
| Measurement | Hi-Opt I figure | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| Betting correlation | .88 without an ace-side-count adjustment | How closely the tags identify changes in betting advantage. |
| Playing efficiency | .61 | How effectively the count supports changes from basic strategy. |
| Insurance correlation | .85 | How well the count identifies changes in the value of insurance. |
These values describe characteristics of the count tags. They are not:
- A player advantage of 88%, 61% or 85%
- A return-to-player percentage
- A prediction of session winnings
- A substitute for a game-specific simulation
Actual results depend on:
- Game rules
- Blackjack payout
- Number of decks
- Penetration
- Bet spread
- Index set
- Number of players
- Rounds per hour
- Bankroll
- Accuracy and error rate
- Casino countermeasures
Hi-Opt I versus Hi-Lo
| Feature | Hi-Opt I | Hi-Lo |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | +1 |
| 3–6 | +1 | +1 |
| 7–9 | 0 | 0 |
| 10–K | −1 | −1 |
| Ace | 0 | −1 |
| Balanced? | Yes | Yes |
| Level | 1 | 1 |
| Published betting correlation | .88 before ace adjustment | .97 |
| Published playing efficiency | .61 | .51 |
| Published insurance correlation | .85 | .76 |
| Ace side count | Useful for betting accuracy | Not normally required for betting |
When Hi-Lo may be the more practical choice
Hi-Lo directly includes both tens and aces as −1. Its strong raw betting correlation and broad availability of published simulations and indices make it a practical choice for many shoe-game players.
It also avoids the need to maintain a separate ace count merely to achieve strong betting accuracy.
When Hi-Opt I may be attractive
Hi-Opt I has greater published playing efficiency and insurance correlation than Hi-Lo. Those characteristics have historically made it attractive for single- and double-deck games, where playing decisions can represent a larger portion of the obtainable gain.
The comparison is not settled by the three correlation numbers alone. A simple system performed accurately can outperform a theoretically stronger system performed with mistakes.
Hi-Opt I versus Hi-Opt II
| Feature | Hi-Opt I | Hi-Opt II |
|---|---|---|
| Count level | Level 1 | Level 2 |
| Largest tag | ±1 | ±2 |
| Published betting correlation | .88 | .91 |
| Published playing efficiency | .61 | .67 |
| Published insurance correlation | .85 | .91 |
| Ace in main count | No | No |
| Mental workload | Moderate, especially with ace side count | Higher because of Level 2 tags and side-count work |
Hi-Opt II provides stronger published efficiency measurements, but the additional +2 and −2 tags increase the risk of counting errors.
A player should not move to Hi-Opt II merely because its theoretical numbers are higher. First demonstrate that Hi-Opt I can be maintained accurately while:
- Talking
- Handling chips
- Estimating decks
- Following split hands
- Tracking aces
- Applying indices
- Maintaining normal game speed
Is Hi-Opt I best for single-deck blackjack?
Hi-Opt I has historically been associated with single-deck and hand-held games because of its playing efficiency and ace-neutral structure.
That does not make every single-deck table attractive.
Evaluate:
- Whether blackjack pays 3:2 or 6:5
- Dealer hitting or standing on soft 17
- Doubling restrictions
- Resplitting rules
- Penetration
- Table limits
- Permitted wager spread
- Rounds per hour
A 6:5 single-deck game can be substantially worse than a well-dealt 3:2 multi-deck game.
The counting system does not repair a weak payout or poor penetration.
Can Hi-Opt I be used in six- or eight-deck shoes?
Yes, but using it efficiently in a shoe generally makes the true count and ace side count more important.
Challenges include:
- Tracking as many as 24 or 32 aces
- Estimating several decks remaining
- Fewer high true-count situations under shallow penetration
- The importance of accurate betting correlation in shoe games
Hi-Lo may be operationally simpler in a shoe because the ace is already included in its main count. Hi-Opt I can still be used, but the player should compare complete simulated performance rather than assuming the higher playing-efficiency number makes it superior in every game.
Hi-Opt I betting decisions
A count does not provide one universal bet ramp.
Bet sizing must account for:
- Starting house edge
- Deck count
- Penetration
- Rules
- True-count frequency
- Ace-side-count adjustment
- Bankroll
- Risk tolerance
- Table minimum and maximum
- Casino tolerance for wager variation
Statements such as “increase the wager at +2” are incomplete without specifying the game, side-count treatment, true-count convention and bankroll model.
A professional analysis normally uses simulation software to estimate:
- Expected value
- Standard deviation
- Risk of ruin
- Optimal or practical bet ramp
- Hourly win rate
- Long-run requirement
Review our guides to blackjack betting spreads and risk of ruin before attaching real wagers to the count.
Hi-Opt I strategy deviations and indices
Basic strategy remains the starting point. Hi-Opt I indices identify situations where the count changes the preferred decision.
An index table can cover decisions such as:
- Insurance
- Standing or hitting stiff totals
- Doubling
- Splitting
- Surrender
Do not use Hi-Lo index numbers with Hi-Opt I merely because both systems are Level 1. The two systems assign different values to aces and twos and therefore produce different true-count relationships.
Indices can also vary with:
- Single deck versus multiple decks
- Dealer hitting or standing on soft 17
- Surrender availability
- True-count resolution
- Rounding convention
- Index-generation assumptions
Use a Hi-Opt I index set generated for the game you intend to play. The complete Hi-Opt I treatment and historical index material are associated with Lance Humble and Carl Cooper’s The World’s Greatest Blackjack Book.
Hi-Opt I and insurance
Insurance depends on the proportion of ten-value cards among the dealer’s possible hole cards.
Hi-Opt I’s main count directly tracks tens and ignores aces, giving it a published insurance correlation of .85.
An insurance threshold should come from the specific Hi-Opt I index set being used. Do not copy a Hi-Lo insurance index without confirming that it applies to Hi-Opt I and the relevant deck count.
Also separate two questions:
- Is insurance favorable at the current count?
- Is the main blackjack hand itself strong or weak?
The value of insurance depends on the probability of a ten-value dealer hole card, not on whether the player holds a blackjack, 20 or a weak total.
Practice drill 1: count down one deck
- Shuffle one deck.
- Start at zero.
- Expose cards one at a time.
- Add +1 for 3–6.
- Subtract 1 for 10–K.
- Ignore all other cards.
- Confirm that the final count is zero.
Accuracy comes first. Add speed only after you can finish repeatedly without an error.
Practice drill 2: count cards in pairs
Expose two cards at a time and cancel combinations immediately.
| Pair | Net value |
|---|---|
| 5 and king | 0 |
| 3 and 6 | +2 |
| Queen and jack | −2 |
| Ace and 8 | 0 |
| 4 and 9 | +1 |
| 2 and 10 | −1 |
Pair practice more closely resembles a blackjack table, where several cards can appear almost simultaneously.
Practice drill 3: add deck estimation
- Place a six-deck shoe in front of you.
- Deal random quantities into a discard tray.
- Estimate the decks remaining.
- Check the estimate by counting the cards.
- Repeat using whole-, half- and quarter-deck intervals.
Record the average estimation error. A true-count system is only as reliable as its running count and deck estimate.
Practice drill 4: maintain the ace side count
- Begin with a known number of decks.
- Maintain the ordinary Hi-Opt I running count.
- Track every ace separately.
- Pause at random points.
- Calculate expected and actual aces remaining.
- Compute the temporary betting adjustment.
- Verify the card and ace counts manually.
Do not add index decisions until both counts can be maintained accurately.
Practice drill 5: full-table simulation
Deal to several player positions and a dealer hand while performing all of the following:
- Maintain the running count
- Track aces
- Estimate decks remaining
- Calculate the true count
- Apply basic strategy
- Handle splits and doubles
- Move chips or record hypothetical wagers
- Carry on an unrelated conversation or listen to background noise
The purpose is not theatrical camouflage. It is to determine whether the count remains accurate under realistic cognitive load.
Our blackjack card-counting trainer can be used alongside physical-card drills.
Common Hi-Opt I mistakes
Counting the 2 as +1
That is a Hi-Lo tag, not Hi-Opt I. In Hi-Opt I, the 2 is neutral.
Counting the ace as −1
The ace is zero in the main count. Track it separately when using an ace side count.
Using the running count as the true count
In a multi-deck game, divide by the estimated decks remaining before applying true-count indices.
Adding the ace adjustment permanently
The excess-ace adjustment is temporary and generally used to create a betting count. Preserve the original Hi-Opt I running count.
Using Hi-Lo indices
Hi-Lo and Hi-Opt I produce different counts because the ace and 2 are treated differently. Use indices designed for Hi-Opt I.
Applying one fixed betting threshold to every game
The point at which the player has an advantage depends on the game’s starting house edge and the complete counting method.
Ignoring blackjack payout
A 6:5 payout can overwhelm improvements that counting might otherwise provide. Favorable counting conditions do not make all tables equivalent.
Learning the ace count before mastering the main count
Adding a second count too early can increase errors in both. Master the Level 1 running count first.
Where Hi-Opt I does not work
Continuous shuffling machines
A true continuous shuffler repeatedly returns used cards to the available card supply. Traditional shoe depletion and penetration are therefore removed, making an ordinary Hi-Opt I running count generally impractical.
Independently shuffled RNG blackjack
If every online round is independently generated from a fresh virtual deck or shoe, cards from the previous round provide no useful information about the next round.
Poorly penetrated games
A count may be technically maintainable while offering too few favorable rounds to justify the time, bankroll or variance.
Games with unclear rules
The proper basic strategy and indices depend on the rules. Do not attach a count to a game before identifying its payout, soft-17 rule, doubling rules, surrender and deck model.
Does Hi-Opt I guarantee a player advantage?
No card-counting system guarantees an advantage or profit.
Hi-Opt I provides information about changes in card composition. Whether that information creates a usable opportunity depends on:
- The initial house edge
- Penetration
- Betting freedom
- Accurate indices
- Accurate ace adjustment
- Bankroll
- Risk tolerance
- Execution quality
- Casino countermeasures
Even under favorable conditions, short-term results can be negative because blackjack variance is large. Expected value is a long-run average, not a promise about one session.
Is Hi-Opt I the right system for you?
Hi-Opt I may suit a player who:
- Already knows basic strategy automatically
- Wants a balanced Level 1 system
- Values playing efficiency
- Frequently studies hand-held games
- Is prepared to maintain an ace side count
- Uses game-specific indices and simulations
Hi-Lo may be more practical for a player who:
- Primarily plays six- or eight-deck shoes
- Wants strong betting correlation without a separate ace count
- Wants widely available index and simulation material
- Values reduced mental workload
Hi-Opt II may appeal to someone who has mastered Level 1 counting and can demonstrate that the extra complexity improves rather than harms real-world accuracy.
Frequently asked questions
What are the Hi-Opt I card values?
Cards 3, 4, 5 and 6 count as +1. Tens, jacks, queens and kings count as −1. Aces, 2s, 7s, 8s and 9s count as zero.
Is Hi-Opt I a balanced count?
Yes. The positive and negative tags in a complete deck sum to zero, so an accurately counted full deck finishes at zero.
Does Hi-Opt I require a true count?
Hi-Opt I is balanced, and multi-deck use normally requires converting the running count by the estimated decks remaining before applying true-count betting or playing indices.
Does Hi-Opt I count aces?
Aces are zero in the main Hi-Opt I count. They can be tracked separately so excess or deficient aces can be used to create a more accurate temporary betting count.
How do you adjust Hi-Opt I for the ace side count?
Calculate the excess aces remaining, multiply that number by the absolute ten-card tag of 1, temporarily add the result to the running count and recompute the true count for betting purposes only.
Is Hi-Opt I better than Hi-Lo?
Neither is universally better. Hi-Opt I has higher published playing efficiency and insurance correlation, while Hi-Lo has stronger raw betting correlation and normally does not require an ace side count for betting.
Is Hi-Opt I good for six-deck blackjack?
It can be used in six-deck games, but true-count accuracy, ace tracking, rules and penetration matter. Hi-Lo may be operationally simpler for many shoe-game players.
Can Hi-Opt I beat continuous-shuffle blackjack?
Traditional Hi-Opt I counting generally is not practical against a true continuous shuffling machine because used cards are repeatedly returned to the available card supply.
Related CountingEdge guides
- Blackjack card counting
- Hi-Lo card counting
- Hi-Opt II card counting
- Card-counting trainer
- Basic blackjack strategy
- Blackjack betting spreads
- Blackjack risk of ruin
- How casinos stop card counting
- How card counters get caught
- The blackjack table
Technical and historical sources
- The World’s Greatest Blackjack Book by Lance Humble and Carl Cooper
- QFIT: Hi-Opt I card tags and performance characteristics
- QFIT: card-counting system comparison and metric definitions
- QFIT: ace side-count adjustments for ace-neutral systems
- QFIT: Hi-Lo tags and comparison figures
- QFIT: Hi-Opt II tags and comparison figures
Technical note: correlation figures describe the information captured by the counting tags. Complete game performance must be evaluated with game-specific rules, penetration, indices, betting assumptions and error rates.
Question: When you do the running count, do you carry it over into the next hand? For instance, lets say in hand one the running count is +3. Do I start the next hand dealt at +3 and adjust accordingly, or do I just reset at 0 for every hand played?
Greyravenwolf,
Thanks for being a Counting Edge reader, and we love your name! You asked a great question. In any card counting method that uses a running count, always begin the count fresh with each new shoe, not with each hand dealt. That means that every time the dealer shuffles the decks and places them back in the shoe, your count starts over. Card counting in a casino depends on something we call deck penetration. That means how deep the dealer deals into a six or eight-deck shoe. The deeper the penetration, the more accurate your count will be. So, keep the running count going until the dealer shuffles up.
Online, you really don’t have a choice. The decks are shuffled after each hand so you have two options. You can either start a fresh count with each new hand or you can keep a running count going to practice your counting skills.
Hope this helps!
Thank you! That is what I initially thought, but I wanted to double check. At home I have 6 decks, and I often practice by dealing out a hand of 6… 5 players plus dealer. I deal them right to left, as if I am one of the players and I am receiving cards from a dealer, etc. The only thing I am not too positive on are some of the why’s.
For instance, I’ve gotten up to +24 in one deck, but still lost hands repeatedly. I am assuming that the plus side merely means you have a better hand chance of winning, as long as you don’t do stupid things like hit when you are showing 15, etc…. I’ve seen sites where they add in other factors, etc.. and I’ve never quite understood those factors… I’m great at the running count, but I can do the true count as well to an extent. When I reach +24 and try to divide that by 3 decks I often try to say 24 goes into 3 how many times, as opposed to 3 goes into 24 how many times, etc.
GreyRavenWolf,
First of all, respect to you for practicing in this manner. Too many people think they can just read about a counting method and attack the casino. They invariably end up busted and soured on the whole counting experience. So, your diligence will pay off in big profits and we are happy to be a part of your journey as a blackjack player.
The thing you are experiencing when losing multiple hands even with a high count is what we call variance. Variance is something all blackjack players and other gamblers must contend with. No matter how well you count or play basic strategy, sometimes you will still lose even when the count is very high (and + 24 is HUGE…if that ever happens in a casino be willing to bet your lungs). To understand variance let us offer a simple example. The actual mathematics behind variance is far more complex than this basic example but it will give you and other readers a general idea of the concept. Let’s say that your card counting skills, playing basic strategy, and money management combine to give you a 1% edge over the house. What this essentially means, without complicated math, is that you can expect to win 51 of every 100 hands at the blackjack table. You will lose 49 times out of 100. Here’s where variance comes in: the math represents what would happen if you played to infinity. It’s a very long term statistic. What it essentially means is that if you played until the end of time and then tallied up the results, you would win 1% more hands than you lose. Variance happens when we attempt to make that statistic fit the short term. During that 100 hands the 49 losses can come individually or they can come in clusters…two, three, four, five, or more (yikes!) in a row. The same thing applies to the wins. This is why we tell everyone to only play live blackjack with a bankroll that is 50X the table minimum. If you sit down at a $5 table with $50, variance is going to clean your clock. If you sit down at the same table with $250, you can withstand the variance and wait for the cluster of wins when the count gets high. Plus, you’ll be betting more and your profits will be greater. The other thing players must learn how to do to beat variance is learn how to take a profit and leave the game. If you win 20% of your total bankroll, book that profit and take a break. Go back later for a new session. Greed is the enemy of every one that wants to gamble.
It certainly sounds like you have the discipline and commitment to be a serious blackjack player. Be sure to keep us informed and share your big wins! We know they are coming.
Will absolutely do! And I completely get what you are saying about variance, which kind of goes hand in hand with Parlay playing. I see a lot of people bet a minimum of say $5.00 and they win, and so they then take that $5.00 and it to the five they bet in order of hoping to have a ten dollar bet and get ten dollars, and then they are mad when they lose the hand and lose and are in the hole.
This is why I bet five, and if I win, I bet five again, and if I continue to win, THEN I will go up five dollars, so that if I lose a hand I am still up 5 or 10 dollars, etc.
I have one more question for you though, and maybe you can explain this in a manner in which I can understand. I see a lot of illustrations about “Insurance” and the variations on playing those, and I don’t understand it at all. They refer to it as the “illustrious 18” and the “fab 4” tables, and I have no idea what the hell they are talking about. I mean, I have a few educated guesses but I don’t want to be guessing when I’m playing with my money, ya know? Do you guys understand these tables and how they work, etc?
GreyRavenWolf,
Another great question and one that will appeal to those who have moved beyond beginner status toward the area of serious card counter!
The Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 are actually indices used in card counting, not specifically variations of the game you will find in a casino. Both of them were developed to amend basic blackjack strategy—in other words, telling you the correct play to make—to better account for when a player should take insurance at the blackjack table. The Illustrious 18 first appeared in an article written by Don Schlesinger.
While we don’t discount Schlesinger’s thoughts on Insurance, we don’t necessarily agree with them either. Our position has always been that insurance is always a bad bet. Think about it. Would the casino really offer you a way out unless the odds were in their favor? The only exception to this rule is when you hold a blackjack. Then, and only then, do we recommend that you insure against the dealer’s ace.
In the long run you will be far better off taking your chances against a dealer’s ace instead of taking insurance. Additionally, the Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 are complex basic strategy indices to learn and use.
I don’t know if anyone even reads these old posts, but I happened upon the site after a google search for info on the hi-opt 1 system. This comment is ridiculous misinformation, especially from a site that purports to be providing accurate information about card counting.
Of course insurance is a bad bet overall, if you take it every time. For the card counter though, it often becomes correct. You are taking a bet that pays 2:1 that a particular unseen card is a ten. If more than 1/3 of the remaining cards left are tens (which is often the case when the count is high), you will win more money than you lose. It’s basic math, not something open to opinion or interpretation.
It is also a side bet. What your cards are should play almost no role in the decision whether to take insurance. In fact, if you have a blackjack, insurance is a slightly WORSE bet than if you had two eights (or any hand that is two non-ten cards), because if you have any tens it is that much less likely that the dealer’s hole card is a ten.
Fairly basic math, as well as simulation of card counting play, easily shows that insuring when the count is appropriately high is the single most valuable strategy change a player can make — and it’s not close.
Grapes,
We love getting comments from experienced card counters and blackjack players like yourself at Counting Edge and we’re happy you took the time to visit.
In regards to Insurance, you have a strong point that obviously comes from your advanced counting experience. We would agree with you wholeheartedly about the complexities of insurance. Our target audience is mostly novice or beginning card counters, so we try to steer on the simplified side of some subjects. For a beginner we would stand by our advice–simply do not take Insurance. In fact, your post mentions one reason why we advise against it. There is too much temptation for a player to take it each and every time, which we both agree is a bad idea.
Our intention is to add content to our site that will benefit more advanced players and card counters. Some of that content will certainly address Insurance in depth and provide a more detailed strategy for how to use it effectively.
Good luck at the tables!
Hi all,
While I was reading about the true count (above) , I noticed something strange – when converting the running count (+4) into true count with 50% left in a DECK – isn’t that a TC of +8 ?
In order to arrive at a TC of +2 (as written in the article) i think it needs 2 DECKS to be left , not 50% of the deck
Cheers
Plamen, Thanks for being a Counting Edge reader!
You make a good observation and ask a good question. The answer, however, is only a matter of semantics. The 50% calculation in the example comes from the player’s determination that half (50%) of the cards in the “deck” had been played. Remember, however, that it is a double deck blackjack game which means that we refer to a “deck” in this case as the two decks being used. Therefore, 50% would mean that one deck remains. To get the true count we divide the running count by the number of cards remaining. If you use your calculator and divide 4 by 50%, as we stated, you will note that the true count is 2, not 8. If 25% of the cards were remaining, you would divide 4 by 25% for a true count of 1. We hope this helps and good luck at the tables!
Hey Countingedge team,
It is my mistake here. I thought it is a single deck game. Your calculations are correct
Thanks for your answer
Regards
Plamen